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Saturday, 28 January 2017

What happen in year of Rooster

This year Malaysia celebrate 60 years independent. This mean Malaysia has gone through whole cycle of Chinese Calendar or the solar system. The 9 planet within solar system are in same position again against the sun and start the cycle again for next 60 years..

Malaysia independent in 1957, which is Ding (Yin Fire) Rooster. Havenly stem of 2017 also Ding fire. The Chinese Calendar cycle for Malaysia start again. Usually, Chinese people would celebrate 60 years old birthday if not every year to celebrate a re-born.

Other than the above, what happen in year of Rooster ?

1) Atomic bomb end of second world war at 1945.

Would nuclear weapon being use again? Would war in Middle East end this year... or both... is yet to be see.

Ronald Reagan took office in year of Monkey able to end the cold war. Would Donald Trump, who also took office in year of Monkey, able to end a "cold war" between China?  But Ronald Reagan took many years to end the cold war. Not in year of Rooster. 

Is Chinese Calendar system for economic cycle only or can use to predict political event?

2) Malaysia 13 May happen in 1969

Malaysia 13 May incident happen in 1969, a year of Rooster. Look like not a good year for election in Malaysia, especially in summer. Hopefully, rakyat have to be more tolerance against each other.

Note: This book is not direct related to Chinese Calendar theory

Is theory of Tao Zhu Gong / Dao Zhu Gong 陶朱公 Fan Li 范蠡 able to predict economic cycle or can use to predict political event?

It look like racial riot more likely to happen in Indonesia than Malaysia. We will see how things turn out.

3) Stock market Super Bull run 

Malaysia have a stock market Super Bull run in 1993, a year of Rooster. However, Malaysia encounter strong growth of economy in 1990s. And there is flood of banking margin for stock trading few years before that.

Generally, Malaysia economy might start growing whether there is stock market bull run or not. Malaysia government have opportunity to reverse it budget deficit for 6 years.

4) Property market creative marketing promotion end.

While stock market bull run only happen in 1993 but not 2005. People who bought property in year of Monkey (even in 2004) never make loss  if dispose off after year of Rooster. It is in year of Monkey that most developers use "Creative Marketing" method but property buyer will find those offer no longer available after year of Rooster.

People who sell any assets in year of Monkey appear loser after year of Rooster. The most famous incident is Low Yat group's AP Land sell off City Square in year Monkey but buyer dispose off at much higher price within short 18 months of purchase.
Tan Sri Leong & Jane Leong - The Edge

Those who bought asset in year of Monkey might have super normal profit. One famous example is Mah Sing founder Tan Sri Leong Hoy Kum bought 12 units of Condominium in year of Monkey by just paying deposit, when Mah Sing core business still in plastic at that point. He managed to dispose off the property after year of Rooster, and buyer willing to paying for Real Property Gain Tax (RPGT). Mah Sing, transform from plastic manufacturer to slowly shift to property after that incident.

Renown stock market columnist of Nanyang Siang Pao recommended people to buy Mah Sing and Hong Leong in an  event sponsor by the two company.

Tan Sri Desmond Lim of Pavilion Group buying WCT Holdings Bhd would gain if able to maintain value of the company. Other company like IOI also buying land in Singapore etc.
Tan Sri Desmond Lim

5) Commodity Price stabilise upward

It is more likely commodity price going up than going down in year of Rooster. Commodity price going down in 1981, a year of Rooster. But commodity price still in up trend in 1979, year of sheep and start going down at the end of year of sheep and beginning of year of Monkey in year 1980. This is when the Hunt brother in US try to corner the Silver market. And the collapse of tin mining industry in Malaysia.

However, Commodity like Petroleum still going down in Year of Sheep in 2015 and have stabilise in year of Monkey. Other commodity like Gold and Palm oil have similar trend. 

While people who bet on shares in 2005 may not get a similar super bull run in 1993. If you bet on commodity in 2005. You would have super normal profit.

 In fact, many people in Malaysia have miss the boat for some of steel counter and Aluminium counter rise recently.

It seem economic upward this round would be lead by Commodity. How fast it spill over to stock market and property market is yet to be seen. In fact, many people in Malaysia have miss the boat for some of steel counter and Aluminium counter rise recently.

In China, property market n some city already performing better than stock market. Thus, up trend stock market in China might be later than Commodity or property

Monday, 23 January 2017

What happen in year of Monkey

This post suppose to be at the beginning of Chinese New Year.

However, we post at the end of year this year as posting at beginning of the year might affect the outcome.

What happen in year of Monkey ?

1) Devaluation of British Pound Sterling

George Soros become famous after his hedge fund short selling British Pound Sterling in 1992. A year of Monkey.

In 2016, a year of Monkey. British Pound Sterling devalue again after Brexit event.  However, George Soros never short selling GBP this round. He invest in Gold in stead. He miss the second chance.

To be fair, It is a bit risk free for him to short GBP in 1992. But to short GBP in 2016 is like a gambling as it depend on result of polls. Invest in gold might be a lower risk bet in 2016. Of course, lower risk, lower return.

2) Change of US President

Whenever it is year of Monkey. there is more likely will be a change in US President. Either from  incumbent Republican to Democrats or from  incumbent Democrats to Republican.

In 1980, a year of Monkey, Ronald Reagan beat  incumbent Jimmy Carter.

In 1992, a year of Monkey, Clinton won the 1992 presidential election (43.0 percent of the vote) against Republican incumbent George H. W. Bush.

In 2016, Donald Trump won the presidency poll from incumbent party.

When Ronald Reagan become President of US. The deficit of US is equally challenging and there is cold war. Financial market do not required to push the panic button as all the risk has been reflected in the market.

Heavenly Stem and Earthly Branch of Chinese Calendar

While strategist use Earthly Branch of Chinese Calendar to predict economic cycle. Which is 12 years a cycle.  Please be remind that Chinese Calendar also affected by Heavenly Stem Which is 10 year a cycle. That's why sometime economic cycle happen 10 year a cycle, Like Asia Financial Crisis in 1998 and Financial crisis in 2008. Thus, while the Earthly Branch is the same in 2004. The Heavenly Stem is different in 1980, 1992, 2004, 2016. Generally a 60 years cycle if included all the combination of Heavenly Stem and Earthly branch. It is a bit too complicated to analyse the effect of both combination of Heavenly Stem and Earthly branch.

In less than a week we will say good bye to year of Monkey.

We yet to decided whether we will post what happen in Year of Rooster at the beginning of the year or at the end of the year.