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Sunday, 22 February 2015

What happen in Year of Goat 羊年发生什么事

This is a comparison  between 1979 and 2015.

Why 1979? Why not 1991 ( Gulf War ) or 2003, which is also year of Goat. This is because the rise of petroleum price few years ago like what happen in 1973.

We know the start of Spring on 4th of February on both 1979 and 2015 and first day of Lunar Chinese New Year on 19 February 2015.

However our comparison start from 1 January respectively rather than 4 February or first day of Lunar Chinese New Year as it still comply with 12 year cycle of comparison.


1979 The Shah left Iran for exile on January 16, 1979, as the last Persian monarch, leaving his duties to a regency council and an opposition-based prime minister. Ayatollah Khomeini was invited back to Iran by the government, and returned to Tehran to a greeting by several million Iranians. The royal reign collapsed shortly after on February 11 when guerrillas and rebel troops overwhelmed troops loyal to the Shah in armed street fighting, bringing Khomeini to official power.
Fighting Erupts in Yemen’s Oil Province
Tribal soldiers, who protect the city from Houthi Militant's attacks and other violent activities, are seen in pick-up trucks as they stand guard at the city borders in Marib, Yemen. The Shiite Houthi rebels who say they have been the victim of Sunni discrimination for decades, are in control of most of the capital, which they entered September. Photographer: Ali Owimdha/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

2015:  Yemen drifted deeper into political limbo on 23 Jan 2015 after President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi resigned in exasperation at a Houthi rebel takeover of the country.
Houthi fighters in Yemen
Houthi fighters take up positions on a street during clashes near the presidential palace in Sana'a, Jan. 19, 2015.

1979: 17 February, China limited attacted on Vietnam,  causing Vietnam in ability to invade Thailand after Cambodia

2015: 16 February, Egypt Air Strike on ISIS in Libya. This is after Jordan air strike one week ago. This is consider iconic as ISIS not only confronted western country in Europe but it own Islam brother country.

Myanmar attack ethnic  Kokang insurgent in China border call Laukkai.
An injured Myanmar Red Cross volunteer lies on the ground after an aid convoy was attacked on February 17, 2015
An injured Myanmar Red Cross volunteer lies on the ground after an aid convoy was attacked on February 17, 2015 The Star.


1979 : Copper prise rise in January.

2015 : Copper price still in bear market in January.


1979 : Petroleum Price stabilize in January to March affected by what happen in Iran and rise of  Khomeini and start rising again in June.

2015 : Petroleum price have some minor technical rebound only on what happen in Yemen.

What to watch

1979 : Former Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in December causing rise of Gold price

2015 : Would peace talk in Ukraine last? Would drop of petroleum price really clipped Russia

In short, 1979 call Annus Horribilis by historian.  



为什么是比较1979年?不是也是羊年的1991年(海湾战争)或2003年。这是因为这几年石油价格大起像1973年之后发生的相同。 我们知道每年立春从二月4日开始和2015年农历一在2015年2月19日。 但是我们比较从1月1日开始,而不是2月4日或农历一开始,但是它仍然符合范蠡陶朱公12年的周期论


1979年: 伊朗革命,沙阿(伊朗君主)穆罕默德·禮薩·巴列維領導的伊朗君主立宪政體在过程中被推翻1979年1月中旬,沙阿被迫流亡海外,因此在兩星期後,在外流亡了15年的霍梅尼回到德黑蘭,受到數百萬伊朗人的歡迎。在不久後的2月11日,游擊隊叛軍在巷戰裡擊敗了忠於沙阿的部隊,導致皇室政權的崩坍。經過了全國公投後,伊朗在1979年4月1日成為伊斯蘭共和國,並通過了新的伊朗伊斯蘭共和國憲法。霍梅尼在1979年12月成為國家的最高領袖






1979 : 一月铜价已经上涨
2015: 一月铜价已经大幅下滑

1979 伊朗革命导致石油价格三月稳定,六月大涨


1979: 前苏联十二月入侵阿富汗导致黄金价格上涨
2015: 乌克兰和谈可以持续多久?下降的石油价格真的导致俄罗斯无力入侵乌克兰?