KSL Holdings Bhd undervalued Property company 顺利实业估值落后同业

As KSL executive director Ku Tien Sek tells it, it was due to an unshakeable belief of Mobius of Templeton Emerging Markets Group that the Iskandar Malaysia development in southern Johor would boom.

"In his thinking, the next five years will see tremendous growth in Iskandar," Ku told an audience of analysts and fund managers in Kuala Lumpur in 2010.

KSL has four major projects in Iskandar Malaysia. It owns 446.8ha there.

And, as Ku tells it, it was a story right out of every listed mid-cap company's dreams.

"One fine day (2009), I was informed that Mark Mobius, not a managing director or anybody else but Mark Mobius, wanted to come and see us. So we made an appointment and he came, and we showed him our 'Tamans' (residential developments)."

Ku also remembers clearly a question Mobius asked him during tea after visiting KSL's developments.

"He asked me, 'Tell me what happened to you, Ku? Why is your stock like that? There are no related-party transactions or anything like that, and yet your share price is way below your net tangible asset value.'"

What ensued after that was an interview with Mobius, which entailed Ku describing in detail the company's processes and management controls.

According to Ku, what tipped the scale was when he explained that KSL bought its own building materials, which it then provided to its subcontractors, as a means of protecting the quality of its developments.

Impressed with the company, Mobius immediately declared his intention to buy a 5 per cent stake in the company.

"Mark Mobius promised me that they would be with us between five and 10 years until the com-pany grows to its potential," Ku said.

(Business Times)

A columnist of Nanyang also recommend KSL Holdings Bhd 2 weeks ago (see below). Price remain stagnant after nearly two weeks People dislike it as it consider illiquid or low volume other than low valuation. However, if you remember WCT Berhad 12 years ago. It is also as illiquid as KSL Holdings Bhd now.people only heard of other big cap construction stock but ignore WCT Bhd at that point of time. However, nobody consider it as illiquid or low volume stock now. Would KSL Holdings Bhd become next WCT Berhad ?

KSL finds success in hotel and shopping mall management by By NG BEI SHAN The Star


FROM a property developer based in Segamat, KSL Holdings Bhd has diversified into hotel and shopping mall management – its KSL City and Resort Hotel in Taman Abad, Johor Baru is a successful project.

The business is categorised under its property investment division, which contributes some 30% to 40% to its total income per annum, says executive chairman Ku Hwa Seng.

Opened a year ago, KSL City emerges as one of the most popular shopping malls in Johor Baru, outshining the older Holiday Plaza, which is a stone’s throw away. Other crowd-pulling malls in the southern capital include The City Square Mall at Jalan Wong Ah Fook and Plaza Angsana at Jalan Skudai. They are 3.6km and 7.7km away respectively from KSL City.
 
“When we first bought the land, we already had in mind what to do with it by gathering ideas from various places,” he says.

Some of the business owners in the shopping mall told StarBizWeek that they have moved from other malls to KSL City due to the catchment, and that is despite of the higher rental.

The shopping mall has a net lettable area of 600,000 sq ft and is 90% occupied.

Complex manager Amy Tan says it had been upgrading its tenant mix since two years ago.
“When we first started, the mall was only 60% rented out. The figure improved over time as we prove ourselves to be one of the popular spots in Johor Baru.

“Our tenants used to be mostly Johorean brands. I can recall how some Klang Valley-based retailers were sceptical when I approached them initially but things have changed and we are getting more and more enquiries from them these days,” she says. 

KSL City is one of the most popular shopping malls in Johor Baru.

Some of the chain stores that can be found in KSL City include: dessert shops J. Co Donut and Tong Pak Fu; pharmacy Watsons; cosmetic and personal care shop The Face Shop; massage parlour Thai Odyssey, Popular Bookstore and Old Town White Coffee restaurant.
 
“Some people liken us to Sungei Wang Plaza (in Bukit Bintang, Kuala Lumpur) but I do not mind that because it is one of the most popular malls in Kuala Lumpur for a long period of time,” she quips.

She also says that the shopping mall is popular among Singaporeans because they can buy things that they do not usually find in the city-state at low prices.

Among others, a durian stall at the ground floor sticks out like a sore thumb.

“This is one good example. We can offer what Singaporeans like,” Tan says.
Its anchor tenants included Tesco and MBO Cinema.

To serve KSL City patrons and hotel guests, there are five levels of carpark with 3,000 bays, while the mall is linked to the hotel.

The two towers of KSL Resort Hotel are built mirroring each other, housing 869 units of hotel rooms of various types, among which, six are smoking floors.

Its accommodation rate per night ranges from RM259 for the superior room to the more exclusive suites, which can fetch RM945 to more than RM2,000 a night.

There are 596 superior rooms, 239 deluxe rooms, 24 junior suites, 4 executive suites, Jasmine Suite, Lavendar Suite, Caladium Suite, Bluebell Suite, and Camellia Suite.

Jasmine, Lavendar and Caladium are popular among couples because they are designed to create the romantic ambience via the room designs and the special round beds especially allocated for these suites. All the rooms come with a jacuzzi.

According to KSL Properties Sdn Bhd general manager Mahadi Mathana, the peak period for the hotel are during Fridays and Saturdays as well as Singaporean and Malaysian public holidays.

Mahadi: ‘Since the opening last year, the average occupancy rate for the hotel is 78% and is definitely picking up over time.

“Since the opening last year, the average occupancy rate for the hotel is 78% and is definitely picking up over time. There are days when the hotel is fully occupied too,” he says.

Besides the hotel rooms, some owners of D’ Esplanade looked into the option of leasing out their units, which would further boost the number of available units for visitors.

Mahadi says the developer offered a package for the serviced apartment owners for a return rate of 8% through rental for a limited period.

“If inclusive of the serviced apartments, there are more than 1,300 rooms altogether,” he adds.

As an integrated development, the hotel also boasts facilities like a water theme park known as “Dinosaur Alive” on the seventh floor of KSL City. The theme park is open for public while hotel guests get to enter at a special rate.

Also on that level are other facilities such as a golf simulator, gymnasium, and ballroom, which can host up to 800 people.

There are nine meeting rooms and 10 penthouse meeting rooms.

Going forward, the company plans to implement the same concept in its township development in Klang, known as the Canary Garden at Taman Bestari.

Following the success seen in KSL City and Resort Hotel, Ku says it will replicate the concept in Canary Garden, which will further improve the revenue contribution from the property investment segment.

Update : KSL enters Klang Valley market?

产业股在全国大选之后经历一些调整，根据联昌证券报告，产业领域近期因国家银行或废除“发展商承担利息计划”（Developers’ Interest Bearing Scheme，DIBS）的市场传言而面对压力。市场盛传国行会与产业发展商会面，商讨抑制产业市场的投机活动，料国行将向发展商承担利息计划下手。

此外，美联储主席伯南克表明，会收紧购买债券的行动，这使到资金流出亚洲地区，包括马来西亚。

不过，联昌证券认为，产业销量放缓只是暂时性的，长期而言，产业交易将保持稳健，因为我国住宅领域基本因素稳健。

在依斯干达发展区相关的股项当中，顺利实业（KSL，5038，主板产业股）被视为是同侪中本益比最低者。

一般而言，投资者喜爱有参与依斯干达发展区的股项，因为在大选后，依斯干达发展区拥有更清晰的展望。

在全国大选之后，依斯干达发展区主题继续成为投资者目的焦点，因为它获得轻快铁、高速铁路以及新加坡新山轻快铁计划的推动。

此外，很多大型的外国公司也开始进驻依斯干达发展区，这包括CapitaLand、Ascendas Land以及Country Garden。

此外，新加坡采取打房措施，例如提高印花税、低借贷率等，已使一些新加坡潜在买家，转到依斯干达发展区投资。

此外，Iskandar Waterfront控股以及Medini Iskandar Malaysia据悉将会上市，再加上这里的土地买卖非常活络，使实际净资产价值获得上修。尽管产业股处于上涨趋势，但是顺利实业的股价表现还是落后同行。

一月初，市场传言顺利实业将会被私有化后，它的股价由12月12日的1.43令吉，上涨至1月中的1.75令吉。

市场有这样的传言，主要是因为其大股东丘氏家族持有53%的股权，而且实际净资产价值被低估、本益比低廉、地库位于柔佛和巴生谷，这些因素将让市场继续垂青顺利实业。

截至2013年3月31日止，顺利实业在依斯干达发展区拥有2100英亩地库。

这些地库位于新山、峇株巴辖、居銮、昔加末、丰盛港、巴生和吉隆坡的策略地点。

这些地库已经获得批准可以进行发展，料可保持顺利实业中期和长期盈利。

另外，该公司正准备在巴生落实的发展计划，将拥有相等于25亿令吉的发展总值。这地点位于巴生路和万津路旁，到巴生市区只须15分钟，这项混合发展计划料将提升集团未来的盈利。

目前发展项目

1.顺利花园（TAMAN NUSA BESTARI）：在新山西北部，与第二大道有很好的连接。227英亩土地总发展价值10亿。

2.顺福花园（TAMAN BESTARI INDAH）：在新山东北部，靠近乌鲁地南区。700英亩土地总发展价值21亿。

3.金葩顺利花园（TAMAN KEMPAS INDAH）：在新山北部，靠近南北大道和Kempas Toll入口处。237英亩土地总发展价值10亿。

4.KSL综合城（KSL CITY）：在新山市区。是南马区最大型的购物中心。离新山的关卡约5分钟车程，非常靠近新加坡。该酒店和住宅已经在2012年年尾竣工；

5.巴生金葩顺利花园（TAMAN KEMPAS INDAH）：首个巴生谷综合房地产发展计划。靠近武吉丁宜永旺和武吉拉惹佳世客购物中心。

465英亩土地总发展价值25亿，耗时10年。

2013财年首季核心净利创记录。根据丰隆投银，顺利实业的营业额和税前盈利皆按年增长80%，主要是更高的认购率和旗舰计划，即新山KSL综合城计划进账的激励。

此外，KSL综合城的酒店开始营业也贡献盈利。

保留资金购地

顺利实业2013财年首季的赚幅，已经超越2012财年所取得38.2%，达到48.5%。根据过去记录，顺利实业取得介于45%至50%的强劲赚幅。

顺利实业税后盈利按季增20%，管理层将之归功于新山混合发展计划陆续贡献及KSL综合城酒店开始营业带来贡献。

顺利实业管理层继续采取谨慎的派息措施，相信他们是为了保留资金，充作这些用途，即（1）巴生的发展计划，因为这旗舰计划需要20亿令吉的营运资金，（2）潜在的地库收购行动，目前财务非常稳固，只有约0.16倍负债比，如果负债比增加至0.5倍，将有4亿令吉购地。



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Taiwan goes on a property shopping spree in Malaysia and Thailand 搶進東協 馬泰 台灣包租公跨海炒房

Property, equities, bonds, currencies... the bull is roaming the markets of Southeast Asia, and ASEAN has taken the place of the U.S. and Europe in the hearts of Taiwanese investors.

During the Lunar New Year holiday, two large tour buses pulled up in front of Malaysia's premier address, Kuala Lumpur's tourist landmark the Petronas Twin Towers ( KLCC ). The more than 50 nattily attired Taiwanese tourists that alighted, however, were not there to take in the sights but to be guided through model units at a luxury housing project under construction in the area accompanied by local lawyers and bankers.

Each luxury apartment has usable floor space of 25 pings (about 82.5 sq. meters), is fully furnished and comes with a parking space all for one million Malaysian ringgit (about NT$9.6 million). More than a few of the Taiwanese guests signed on the spot, paying deposits with credit cards. Some even bought four or five units.

"In Taiwan, a rate NT$400,000-plus per ping would only get you something in a non-exclusive area on the outskirts of Taipei, but here you can buy in the capital city's most exclusive area. You not only get rental income, but the potential for future property value increase is even greater," says 37 year-old Ms. Huang, an airline cabin crew supervisor. This was Huang's third fact-finding trip to Malaysia with her husband, who also works in the airline industry. The couple ultimately decided to buy two units and become "ASEAN landlords."

Others in the group included retired teachers, technology executives and real estate speculators flush with cash.

A Taipei City councilor recently asked a friend familiar with developments on the Asian mainland: "I just want you to tell me, will the Trans-Asian Railroad be built?" Upon hearing "it's going to get built and some segments are already operating" for an answer, she duly showed up at the Kuala Lumpur briefing the following day.

For nearly a year now, as the economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) boom, groups of Taiwanese jetting off to various ASEAN countries on "property market fact finding missions" have become quite the trend.

Malaysian, Thai Properties Hot

"I've flown to ASEAN [nations] at least once a month over the past year. I've lost count of the number of trips I've made," says Lin Guangyan, spokesman for the Taiwan Realty International Real Estate Division for local realtor Apac House.

Two years ago, Apac House began offering agency services for units in select Malaysian property development projects, organizing tours of the projects for groups of prospective clients. The initial response was tepid at best. Beginning last year, however, interest exploded and tours were booked solid.

Now, fact-finding tours of the Malaysian property market have become "incredibly popular," Lin reveals. Each group comprises 40 to 50 prospective property buyers with tours organized twice monthly. Tours are booked solid through mid-year.

Last year Apac House acted as agent in the sale of more than 500 units in Malaysian development projects alone, with total transaction value topping NT$10 billion.

And interest is not merely limited to Malaysia, with numerous Taiwanese investors recently showing similar interest in property markets in ASEAN members Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.

Among those, interest in Thailand, a familiar holiday destination for Taiwanese, has been relatively strong. Even Taiwan financial information website cnYes.com has gotten in on the act, organizing fact-finding tours and agency services for prospective buyers of Thai and Malaysian properties.
Although the "Thailand Groups" can't compare in scale with the "Malaysia Groups," over the past year about a hundred people monthly head off to Thailand to look at properties and invest there, one industry insider notes.

In 2015, the ASEAN member states will merge their economies into a single market. ASEAN member economies have been showing vigorous growth, and that has led to an outbreak of "ASEAN property fever" in Taiwan.

Fueling that fever has been a return of easily six percent or better on rental income, and with more hot money pouring in, the "conceivable space" for further rises in property values there is virtually inexhaustible.

"Previously, the majority of Taiwanese investors were most keenly interested in China properties. But the future prospects there are now unclear, and disputes over property transaction rights are also numerous. In Taiwan, investors are subject to luxury taxes, real value assessments [for taxation purposes] and other official housing policies," one investor surnamed Hu says. "By contrast, ASEAN is growing rapidly, the possibilities are numerous, what with the Trans-Asian Railway to eventually provide a link from China all the way through to Singapore. Add to that the low interest rates and investment capital flowing in from a variety of countries, and it's hard to envision [property prices] not rising."

During 2009-2010, before Taiwan imposed its luxury tax, Hu made himself a bundle, with around NT$1 billion on hand. Even though he's unfamiliar with the local property markets there, today he's planning on "sinking some cash into ASEAN" to test the waters there.

Three Key Hurdles for ASEAN Landlords

According to statistics from the U.K.-based Global Property Guide, property values in Singapore, the Philippines and Malaysia have risen 30 percent over the past three years. Thailand and Indonesia have also seen property values rise 20 percent during the same period.

It's not just Taiwanese buyers investing in ASEAN property. Plenty of investment capital is also flowing in from Japan, South Korea, China, and Hong Kong. But experts advise that sinking cash into the ASEAN property markets is not without risk and note three key hurdles to which investors must pay heed.

Hurdle One: Varying Investment Laws

First of all, due to the differences in regulations governing investment by foreigners, buying property in the various ASEAN member states is a lot different than buying in Taiwan.

For example, says Lin Guangyan, the Taiwan House spokesman, in Indonesia and the Philippines foreign individuals may not hold direct property rights; property purchases there must be made in conjunction with a citizen of said country or through an asset management company, REIT fund or other mechanism securing indirect property rights. In Thailand, foreigners may own an apartment but may not own stand-alone houses or land.

In Malaysia, legal regulations guaranteeing citizens right to purchase low-cost housing mean that foreigners may only buy properties with a net value of RM$500,000 (about NT$5 million) or higher.

Hurdle Two: Climbing Tax Rates

The next thing investors must also consider is that property taxes in ASEAN nations may gradually rise.

In Singapore, for example, a new law was passed in January of this year specifically targeting property purchases by foreigners (including permanent residents), subjecting them to tax levies of five to seven percent, and limiting the percentage of the purchase which may be financed through lending.

Thailand levies no land value tax, house tax or property transaction income tax; buyers need only pay a stamp tax at the time of transaction. But in both Malaysia and Thailand, income tax of 20 percent or more must be paid on rental income.

"There's a possibility that each ASEAN nation will in the future follow Singapore's lead in boosting taxes to cool down [the market] in order to prevent [foreign] hot money from sparking inflation.

 Investors should take this into careful consideration," suggests Pauline Ng, an investment manager and Malaysia and Singapore country specialist at JP Morgan Asset Management (Singapore) Ltd. Whether investing in financial markets or the property market, investors would be wise to avoid relatively inflationary countries.

Hurdle Three: Unfamiliarity with Political, Economic Trends

Finally, as most Taiwanese investors are not particularly well-versed in the political and social conditions extant in ASEAN nations, it is difficult for them to get a read on the shifting winds of local property markets.

Early last year, for example, contentious border issues between Vietnam and China resulted in an indefinite suspension of cooperation between the two countries in building a new highway, the establishment of a duty-free zone and other economic development plans, resulting in a sharp decline in property markets in Hanoi and the region around northern Vietnam's border with China.

Experts advise investors to make judgments on long-term property market trends in a given country based on fundamental factors such as economic growth rates, trends in urbanization and population demographics. They should also avoid over-leveraging themselves to reduce risk.

Perhaps more attractive than property market speculation are ASEAN-based mutual funds, which offered nearly 20 percent returns last year and continue to rise this year, attracting keen interest from Taiwanese stock players.

Last year, Philippine and Thai equities markets led the ASEAN pack with 30 percent gains as ASEAN become the highest growth region among global equities markets. Whether or not that trend will continue has become the focus of great concern among investors.

"Judging from international capital flows, economic growth projections and other indicators, ASEAN markets will continue to rise this year, be it equities markets or bond markets," says JP Morgan's Pauline Ng.

Despite uncertainties like the ending of the third round of "quantitative easing" in the United States and the depreciation of the Japanese yen, international hot money continues to pour into ASEAN equities markets. An anticipated wave of depreciation among ASEAN currencies has also yet to materialize, and indeed, those currencies have continued to rise. Equity market indices in Thailand and Indonesia continue to set record highs.

On top of that, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore are this year embarking on massive economic infrastructure construction plans and JP Morgan's Pauline Ng is bullish in her forecasts, expecting better than 10-percent growth on average across the ASEAN region.

Kuo Yu-lan, ASEAN fund manager for Fidelity Worldwide Investment says Northeast Asian investment destinations Japan, South Korea, China and even Taiwan, will be facing problems related to aging populations, declining workforces and other challenges over the next five years.

In contrast, ASEAN nations will continue to reap a population dividend. In addition, with a growing middle class in those nations, domestic demand stock plays in such sectors as telecoms, foodstuffs, and property development will continue to be attractive in the long-term, despite having already seen a surge in value, driven by growing domestic demand in the emerging ASEAN nations.

By Hsiang-Yi Chang
Translated from the Chinese by Brian Kennedy
Excerpt From  : CommonWealth Magazine

Update : New class of condos

搶進東協 馬泰 台灣包租公跨海炒房

 

台幣900萬的吉隆坡精品公寓，台灣人搶著組團飛去買。東協股、債、匯均漲，今年基金仍看好，報酬率高達兩成，已取代歐美，變身投資新主流。

春節假期，兩輛大型遊覽車，停靠在馬來西亞首府——吉隆坡著名的觀光地標：雙子星大樓(KLCC)。五十多名衣著光鮮的台灣旅客，卻不入內參觀，而是在當地律師、銀行專員陪同下，魚貫走入附近的建案樣品屋。

每戶室內實坪約二十五坪的精品公寓，含裝潢、家具與車位，總價一百萬馬來西亞令吉（約九六○萬台幣）。不少台灣客當場簽約，刷卡下訂。甚至一訂就是四、五戶。

「算一算每坪四十多萬台幣，在台灣只能買到新北市非精華區，在這裡卻可以買首都精華地段。不但有租金收入，未來增值潛力更高，」三十七歲的航空公司座艙長黃太太，和同在航空業的先生，已到馬來西亞考察三次。最後決定買下兩戶，要當「東協包租婆、包租公」。
同團的成員，還有退休教師、科技業主管，甚至包括不少現金滿滿的投資客。

日前，一名台北市議員詢問熟悉亞洲的友人，「你只要告訴我，泛亞鐵路建不建？」得到「建啊，有些路段都已通車了」的答案，她隔天便出席了吉隆坡團的說明會。

近一年來，隨著東協經濟大幅成長，像這樣從台灣飛往東協各國的「房市考察團」，正蔚為風潮。

東協炒房團　夯泰、馬

「這一年，每個月都至少飛東協一趟。已經算不出總共去多少次了，」台灣房屋國際資產中心發言人林廣彥說。

兩年前，台灣房屋推出馬來西亞部份建案的代銷業務，帶客戶組團看屋。剛開始，乏人問津。去年中起，卻忽然場場爆滿。

林廣彥透露，如今馬來西亞的房市考察團「夯到不行」。每團約四、五十人名額，每月出團兩趟，報名已經額滿至年中。

去年，單是台灣房屋在馬來西亞代銷的建案，已完銷超過五百戶，成交總金額逾台幣一百億元。

不只馬來西亞，東協的印尼、菲律賓、新加坡和泰國，近來同樣有不少台灣投資客探路。
其中以台灣人熟悉的旅遊勝地——泰國，人氣較旺。連國內財經網路媒體（鉅亨網），都扮演起泰、馬房地產的組團仲介角色。

業界人士指出，「泰國團」雖不比「馬來團」，今年以來，每月也有近百人前去看屋置產。
二○一五年，東協即將成為單一市場。成員國經濟和區域間貿易，都成長強勁，以致在台灣掀起「東協炒房熱」。

而炒房熱的主因，是動輒六％以上的租金收入，和熱錢湧入下，房價上漲的「想像空間」無窮。

「過去，最多台灣投資人最有興趣的大陸房地產，現在前景不明、買賣產權糾紛也多。在台灣，則有奢侈稅、實價登錄等打房政策，」投資客胡先生說。「反觀東協成長快、題材多，如亞洲鐵路將來從中國大陸一路貫穿到新加坡。加上低利環境下，各國資金湧入，（房價）不漲也難。」

在○九、一○年奢侈稅開徵前，胡先生賺進大把鈔票，手握約十億現金。即使他不熟悉當地市場，如今也計劃要「錢進東協」試水溫。

東協包租公　三大關卡

根據英國環球房地產指南統計，包括新加坡、菲律賓、馬來西亞等東協國家的房價，三年來漲幅均超過三○％。泰國和印尼，也有超過二○％的漲幅。

搶進東協房地產的，不只台灣買家，還有日、韓、中、港的投資客。

不過，專家提醒，「錢」進東協房市仍有風險，有三大關鍵必須注意。

關卡一：投資法規各異

首先，由於對外人投資的法規不同，在東協各國買房，與在台灣購屋大不相同。

台灣房屋國際資產中心發言人林廣彥舉例，如在印尼和菲律賓，外國自然人不能直接擁有房地產產權。必須與該國公民共同購買（房地產），或透過資產管理公司、REIT基金等，間接持有。在泰國，則可以持有公寓產權，但不能購買獨棟房屋及土地。

而在馬來西亞，由於法令保障本國人購買平價住宅，因此外國人只能購買總價五十萬令吉（約五百萬元台幣）以上的房地產。

關卡二：稅率愈來愈高

其次，投資人也必須衡量，東協置產的租稅負擔，可能逐漸增加。

以新加坡為例，今年一月份通過新法，針對外國人（包含永住居民）購置房地產，徵稅五％至七％，並限制貸款成數。

泰國沒有地價稅，也沒有房屋稅和交易所得稅，只有在交易時繳納印花稅。但在租金收益上，馬來西亞和泰國，必須徵收二○％以上的所得稅。

「為防止熱錢推升通膨，未來，東協各國不無跟進新加坡、增稅降溫的可能。投資人需審慎考量，」摩根東協基金經理人黃寶麗建議。不論投資股匯或房市，最好先避開通膨較高的國家。

關卡三：不熟政經情勢

最後，由於台灣投資人多半對東協各國的政治、社會環境不熟悉，不易掌握當地房市轉折。
例如去年初，越南河內，與北部中越邊境一帶，因中越邊境主權紛爭，造成中越合作興建高速公路、成立免稅特區等計劃，無限期延宕，房市因此暴跌。

專家建議，投資人最好從經濟成長率、都市化趨勢和人口結構等基本面，判斷當地房價的長期趨勢。同時避免過度融資，以降低風險。

比炒房更有吸引力的，是去年來動輒近兩成報酬率、今年還在漲的東協基金，正吸引台灣人螞蟻雄兵般的資金。

去年，菲律賓、泰國股市領軍大漲三成，東協成為全球股市漲幅最高的區域。「今年是否還能延續去年漲勢？」也成為投資人最關心的焦點。

「從國際資金流向、經濟成長預期等指標來看，今年，東協不論股、債市，都還沒漲完，」摩根東協基金經理人黃寶麗指出。

目前，雖有美國QE3退場、日圓貶值的不確定因素，國際熱錢仍持續湧入東協股市。東協各國貨幣也未如預期開始競貶潮，反而逆勢走升。印尼、泰國股市更持續突破歷史高點。

加上泰、馬、新加坡等國，今年都推出大規模的經濟建設計劃，黃寶麗樂觀預期，今年東協各國，平均仍有超過一成的上漲空間。

富達東協基金經理人郭玉蘭指出，相較於東北亞的日、韓，以及中國，甚至台灣，未來五年都面臨高齡社會、勞動力流失的挑戰。

反觀新興的東協各國，仍有人口紅利加持。加上中產階級增加，電信、食品、金融和房地產開發商等內需概念股。在東協內需興起的大趨勢下，即使股市已有一波漲幅，仍值得長線投資。

綜合專家建議，今年東協基金投資策略，穩健型投資人，可參考去年績效表現較佳的區域型基金，將二至三成資金放在東協市場。積極型投資人，則可繼續加碼去年「獲利王」——泰國股市基金，並分批逢低進場越南、印尼股市。
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5力引爆「東協熱」

一年來，全球不斷出現投資東協的報導，和看好東協的調查。這股「東協熱」，在世界經濟情勢改變的推力、東協本身拉力的雙重作用下，潛力蓄勢噴發。

推力1：中國變貴。「中國必須轉型，因為我們變貴了，」復旦大學財金系教授孔愛國歸納。中國工資快速上漲及缺工難題，讓許多外商將目光轉到東協，尋求替代產能。

推力2：釣魚台爭議，日商轉進。

去年11月初，娶了大理太太，在雲南帶旅遊團的大連人小陳，才剛送走了大連來的四個日本客人。日本客人在日本車廠的大連分公司工作。因釣魚台爭議引發反日，公司被砸。「待不下去啦，回日本前，先到大理玩一轉，」小陳說。「你不知道，他們緊張的咧，一路上不敢開口，怕人家認出他們是日本人。」

日本到泰國、馬來西亞等東協國家的投資，近年來突增。除了日圓升值、日本國內市場萎縮的因素，中日關係緊張，也是迫使日商加速外移的原因。

東協自己也夠爭氣，形成拉力，吸引資金、人才匯集。

拉力1：因亞洲金融風暴受重傷的泰國等國，經貿早已回彈。近十年來，GDP幾乎年年成長5％以上。2008年以來，美國金融風暴與歐債危機，東協幾乎毫髮未傷。攤開所有機構的預測，曾經閃閃發亮的金磚四國一一掉漆，歐、美、日困獸猶鬥。全球經濟的亮點，就在東協了。

拉力2：原本鬆散的東南亞國協，近年來，讓懷疑者跌破眼鏡，積極整合。2015年，即將組成單一自由市場。六億人口，東協已經自成一格，成為吸引力十足的市場。此刻的東協，史上最強。

拉力3：年輕、日漸富裕、充滿活力的市場，讓東協成為各方拉攏的對象。中、美、歐、日、韓、紐、澳及拉丁美洲，一個接一個和東協簽訂自由貿易協定（FTA），催出投資、貿易年年雙位數成長。（賀桂芬）作者：張翔一
天下雜誌 517期

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