Today is last trading day for year of Rooster. It's time to adjust your portfolio.
4 Feb 2018 is first day of spring in Solar Chinese Calendar. It deem officially cross into year of dog. Not first day of Chinese New Year as that follow Lunar Chinese Calendar.
Stock Market
1994 : "Super Bull Run" collapse immediately after Chinese New Year when former Finance Minister of Malaysia warned that the stock market of Malaysia become irrational.
2006 : On 7 November 2006 ( year of dog ) – The KLCI passes the 1,000 mark hurdle, for the first time since 2000.
Which one will happen in 2018. 1994 or 2006?
Every stock market player curse Tun Daim for his bad mouth causing the collapse of stock market in 1994, year of dog.
While there is rotational play on selective small cap stock and technology counter on 2017 and it still increasing. I can't say it can be describe as "Super Bull Run". Will there be collapse like what happened in 1994, a year of dog?
As 2017 behave like 1981 and 2005 but not 1993. ( Year of Rooster ). It seem stock market of Malaysia would behave like 1982 or 2006. But not 1994 ( Year of dog ) . Party might end, or there may even be a minor correction, especially those counter that have fundamental support or over value fundamentally, or those counter that only rise once in 12 years. But I doubt there would a be collapse like 1994 ( Year of dog ) . As 2017 behave like 1981 and 2005 but not behave like "Super Bull Run " in 1993. ( All year of Rooster )
Property
1994 : Spill over effect of Super Bull Run of Stock Market causing property price, double, triple or even quadruple compare to 2 years ago, until 1997/98 Asean Financial Crisis.
2006 : No " Super Bull Run" in 2005. Thus, Property price remain slump in 2006. It is in 2007 ( Year of Pig ) that Carmen Chua have to request government to intervene by abolish Real Property Gain Tax ( RPGT ) .
As 2017 not a super Bull Run of stock market like what happened in 1993. Thus, there is no spill over effect of profit from stock market to property market like what happened in 1994. Property Market might behave like 2006 in 2018. It would not going up until government intervene. It is in 2007 ( Year of Pig ) that Carmen Chua have to advise government to abolish Real Property Gain Tax ( RPGT ) . But because of government grant her appeal in that year that cause people cannot afford to bought a house in our home country now. Thus, the advise is government should not intervene this round.
According to theory of Tao Zhu Gong / Dao Zhu Gong 陶朱公 Fan Li 范蠡, Year of Monkey, rooster, dog, Pig, Mouse and Cow should be high property price year and should be a budget surplus year for government. Government should not intervene the economic and should let the demand and supply or invisible hand ( Adam Smith )do the job. Intervention of government on those year would cause property price to a level the cannot afford by people. If government unable to maintain budget surplus on those year. Government might not have budget surplus in the following 6 years. Causing a budget deficit of 12 consecutive year. Theoretically, it is unlikely to have budget surplus when the country in recession when a country have strong growth yet still in budget deficit.
Whereas in the year of Tiger, Rabbit, Dragon, snake, horse, and goat. Government should apply Keynes theory of budget deficit.
Commodity
In 1982, year of dog, Commodity price collapse. In fact, Malaysia Tin industry collapse on those year. Other like Gold , Silver, Copper also in a long term correction.
However, in 2006, another year of dog, Anybody bet on Commodity price like Petroleum, Gold etc gain in the following few years.
Would 2018 like what happen in 1982 or 2006?
Commodity price, like gold , Silver，Petroleum and copper stand firm at the end of year of Rooster. Thus, it seem unlikely to behave like what happened in 1982, where commodity price Collapse. ( Price move up (1980) collapse at the end of Monkey)
Again, commodity might follow the trend in 2006 ( like property expected to also follow 2006, not 1982 ) in stead of 1982 ( Both year of dog ) .
Bit Coin "Super Bull Run" may end
The biggest "Super Bull Run" in 2017 happen in bit coin in stead of stock market. Thus, "Super Bull Run" might end in year of dog. Be careful. It may come faster and severe than you expected.
But don't curse me like you curse Tun Daim if it happen.
Politic
In 1970, Tunku Abdul Rahman step down as Malaysia first Price Minister and Tun Abdul Razak become second Price Minister. But that is because general election held in year of Rooster (1969 ) and racial riot happened in year of Rooster. 1970 also beginning of New Economy Policy ( NEP )
Malaysia Prime Minister Najib never held General Election in year of Rooster.
In 1982, Tun Dr Mahathir first general election after he become Price Minister of Malaysia and Barisan National victory.
Unfortunately, This is not Najib first General Election after he come Price Minister. Would Tun Dr Mahathir have luck again in year of dog?
It is interesting to see what will transpired.
War
Generally, theory of Tao Zhu Gong / Dao Zhu Gong 陶朱公 Fan Li 范蠡 use for predict economic cycle in stead of political event. But refugee crisis in middle east similar to what happen in Vietnam 36 years ago. It is better we see what happen in year of dog even it is not involve economic cycle.
Falklands War happened in 1982.
What similarity between Argentina and UK in 1982 and in 2018 are relationship between North Korea and South Korea. No harm to be careful , south Korea.
First day of Spring
Remember to play egg balancing game by try to stand an egg on Lup Chun day. First day of Spring on 4 Feb 2018.
狗年发生什么事
文:曾少白
今天是鸡年最後一个交易曰。又到了重组你的投资组合的时候了
二O一八年二月四曰是立春曰。理论上已经踏入狗年。年初一只昰狗年的第一个新月。
股市
1994年-大牛市终结。熊市在新年後在前财長敦達因發出警告後下胮。
2OO6年-吉隆坡综合指數在11月七曰漲过一千点，2OOO年来第—次。
大马股市2O18年会根据那一狗年轨迹？1994年或20O6年？
散户都在1994年组咒敦逹因，说他乌雅嘴造成股市下跌。
虽然2O17年有出现个别股项轮流上漲。踏入2018年元月还在上漲中。但，我不可说大马股市2O17年出现大牛市。没有出现人人谈论股市情形。
2O17年大马股市比较像1981年及2005年而不是1993年。那2O18年大马股市应该会比较像1982年或2O06年而不是像1994年大熊市。不过股價超出基本面的应该会调整。
地產
1994年-大家在股市大牛市中賺到的錢投入地產中。造成產业價格上漲，翻了几翻。
20O6年-股市2O05年沒有大牛市。產业市塲—片死水。蔡傌友的千金蔡嘉文在2007年要救大马政府取消產业盈利税(RPGT)拯救產业市場。
由於2O17年沒有出现股市大牛市，沒有股市盈利進入產业市場。看来產业市場在2O18年比较像20O6年而不是1994年。產业市場可能需要政府介入。才会有起色。但是就是因为當年取消產业盈利税，才使如今大多數国人買不起房子。
根据陶朱公，笵蠡学说:范子《计然》:
寅、卯、辰、已、午、未，为陽。
申、酉、戍、亥、子、丑，为陰。
陽年政府才可财政預算赤字。陰年政府需财政盈餘。理论上,当一个国家经济强劲增长但仍处于预算赤字状态时，期望国家在处于经济衰退时期有预算盈余是不可能的。
换句话说，明智政府不应在陰年干涉市埸运作。
政府不应在陰年推动產业高漲，不然漲勢將失控。
商品
1982年-原產品價格崩溃。大马錫业崩溃，某它商品如黄金，銀，石油等進入長期熊市。
2OO6年-買進石油黃金等人士几年後赚到笑。
2O18年会是另一1982年或2OO6年？
商品價格如黄金，銀，石油，銅等已经從最低價格站稳並逐步上漲。这跟1981年不同，比较像2OO5年。
看来2O18年商品價格比较像2OO6年而不是像1982年。(两个都是狗年)
比特币
2017年最大牛市不是在股市。而是在虚拟貨币如比特币等。咖啡店里人门谈论的是比特帀而不是股市。这是大牛市的现像。看来狗年会崩溃的会是虚拟貨帀而不是股市。
如果这真發生了。请不要像诅咒敦達因那样诅咒我喔！
政治
197O年，东姑阿都拉曼辞去大马第一任首相。敦拉萨成为大马第二仼首相。不过大選年是鸡年1969年。及發生513事件。197O年也是新经济政策第一年。
不过，2017年不是大選年。
1982年，马哈迪成为首相後第一次大選。囯陣大勝。
可惜2O18年不是那吉成为首相後第一次大選。令人好奇敦马会不会再次成为狗年幸运年？
战爭
不过，最近中东難民事件竟跟36年前越南難民事件不谋而合。
看看一下狗年發生什么事无彷，就算跟经济旡关。
1982年-福克兰群島战爭。
當時阿根廷正跟英国谈判。没有英国人預測到阿根廷会入侵。
现在朝鲜跟南韓谈判。南韓应當小心。
立春
立春曰记得把鸡蛋站起来:
文:曾少白
文:曾少白
No comments:
Post a Comment