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Monday, 23 January 2017

What happen in year of Monkey

This post suppose to be at the beginning of Chinese New Year.

However, we post at the end of year this year as posting at beginning of the year might affect the outcome.

What happen in year of Monkey ?

1) Devaluation of British Pound Sterling

George Soros become famous after his hedge fund short selling British Pound Sterling in 1992. A year of Monkey.

In 2016, a year of Monkey. British Pound Sterling devalue again after Brexit event.  However, George Soros never short selling GBP this round. He invest in Gold in stead. He miss the second chance.

To be fair, It is a bit risk free for him to short GBP in 1992. But to short GBP in 2016 is like a gambling as it depend on result of polls. Invest in gold might be a lower risk bet in 2016. Of course, lower risk, lower return.

2) Change of US President

Whenever it is year of Monkey. there is more likely will be a change in US President. Either from  incumbent Republican to Democrats or from  incumbent Democrats to Republican.

In 1980, a year of Monkey, Ronald Reagan beat  incumbent Jimmy Carter.

In 1992, a year of Monkey, Clinton won the 1992 presidential election (43.0 percent of the vote) against Republican incumbent George H. W. Bush.

In 2016, Donald Trump won the presidency poll from incumbent party.

When Ronald Reagan become President of US. The deficit of US is equally challenging and there is cold war. Financial market do not required to push the panic button as all the risk has been reflected in the market.

Heavenly Stem and Earthly Branch of Chinese Calendar

While strategist use Earthly Branch of Chinese Calendar to predict economic cycle. Which is 12 years a cycle.  Please be remind that Chinese Calendar also affected by Heavenly Stem Which is 10 year a cycle. That's why sometime economic cycle happen 10 year a cycle, Like Asia Financial Crisis in 1998 and Financial crisis in 2008. Thus, while the Earthly Branch is the same in 2004. The Heavenly Stem is different in 1980, 1992, 2004, 2016. Generally a 60 years cycle if included all the combination of Heavenly Stem and Earthly branch. It is a bit too complicated to analyse the effect of both combination of Heavenly Stem and Earthly branch.

In less than a week we will say good bye to year of Monkey.

We yet to decided whether we will post what happen in Year of Rooster at the beginning of the year or at the end of the year.